Hollow operation, Hollow regime- Bahram Soroush

April 15, 2024

The Islamic Republic’s drone and missile attack on Israel was not a sign of its power, but, on the contrary, of its utter political and military bankruptcy and despair. As confirmed by its Foreign Minister, Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, the regime had informed the US and the regional states about its operation 72 hours in advance. It had given Israel and its allies plenty of time to plan to intercept and destroy its drones and missiles before they had any chance of hitting their targets. According to the Israeli army, 99% of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards’ projectiles were shut down. Shortly after the start of the operation, Iran’s envoy to the United Nations informed the Western powers and the regional states that the ongoing attack was all the retaliation they had intended for Israel’s assault on their Damascus consulate ten days earlier, taking out a number of its Quds Army commanders, and that the ‘retaliation’ may now be deemed as “concluded”.

The operation was meant to appear dramatic, while lacking in any prospect of serious harm to Israel. The Iranian regime seeks to avert a large-scale military confrontation with Israel at any cost. It neither has the political or military capacity for such a confrontation, nor can it intimidate or buy credibility for itself domestically by whipping up a climate of war. The Iranian people’s hatred of and protest against this murderous regime, especially in the wake of the seismic Woman Life Freedom revolution, will not let the regime succeed in any such endeavour. On the contrary, the first consequences of any serious war with Israel or the US would be the crumbling of the foundations of the regime, and a potential opportunity for the people to overthrow it. The Islamic regime knows this very well, and that’s why it will not willingly subject itself to such a predicament.

On the other side, the Israeli regime cannot afford to open up a new front with the Islamic Republic, mainly due to its ongoing war in Gaza, which, despite the mass slaughter and suffering inflicted on the Palestinian people, apparently has not yet reached a sufficiently bloody conclusion, from the Israeli government’s point of view. The people of Israel, having experienced over six months of militarised conditions and the loss of their loved ones, alongside their empathy with the tens of thousands of victims from among the Palestinian people, and their growing disgust with Netanyahu and his fascistic government, have no appetite for another war, and will not readily let the Israeli government to drag them into one.

Despite the hollow sabre-rattling by the heads of Iran’s regime and the vacuous belligerent rants by the Israeli government, neither side wants to or has the political and military stamina to escalate the current confrontation to the level of a war. Israel will be forced to respond in some form, but, in the words of its Defence Minister Benny Gantz, “in the manner and at the time of [its] choosing”, which in plain language means refraining from any hasty and provocative action which might enflame the situation further.

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